EURCHF tumbled to a recent seven-and-a-half yr low of 0.9875 on Wednesday, extending the sharp selloff that started on June 9. The momentum indicators are deep in unfavorable territory so additional losses are doubtless within the close to time period. Nevertheless, there are some indicators that the draw back stress could also be easing, albeit very barely.
The RSI has dipped beneath 30 into the oversold area, however its downward slope is getting shallower. The MACD additionally continues to deteriorate, with the histogram holding properly beneath the purple sign line.
However maybe of extra significance is the truth that regardless of the newest slide, the value has not but reached the decrease Bollinger band, indicating that there’s scope for additional losses within the fast time period.
Ought to the pair decline in the direction of the decrease Bollinger band, which at present stands close to the 0.9825 mark, and is ready to smash beneath it, the subsequent assist could not emerge till the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the early June upleg at 0.9738. Breaking beneath this barrier too would shift consideration to the 0.95 degree.
Nevertheless, if EURCHF is ready to bounce off the decrease Bollinger band prefer it has been doing since mid-June, the rebound may initially stumble at 0.9945 earlier than the bulls goal for the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of 1.0034. A profitable climb above this degree may strengthen the optimistic momentum and stretch the beneficial properties in the direction of the 20-day transferring common (MA), which is about to intersect the 123.6% Fibonacci of 1.0147.
To sum up, the short-term bias stays very bearish and solely a restoration in the direction of the 20-day MA would considerably diminish the promoting stress. Nevertheless, within the medium time period, the value must reclaim the 50-day MA to revive the impartial outlook.